Wall Street week ahead: Jobs report and PCE inflation set to test Fed rate path
Investors are focused on the September employment report due 2 October and mid-week PCE inflation data after the Fed’s first rate hike in three years. Futures imply more than a 60% chance of another hike in October, while the S&P 500 sits near records even as most sectors struggle.
Investors heading into the week of 26 September are watching two US data releases that could reshape bets on Federal Reserve policy: the September employment report due on 2 October and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation figures expected mid-week, Reuters reported.
What the calendar holds
A Reuters poll pointed to roughly 100,000 jobs added in September and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Those numbers matter after the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on 16 September — its first hike in three years. LSEG futures data showed more than a 60% chance of another hike in October.
Markets near highs, breadth weak
The S&P 500 remained within about 1% of its mid-August peak, supported by technology and AI-linked stocks. Under the surface, however, eight of eleven S&P sectors were negative in September, and the equal-weight S&P was down about 4% for the month, according to Reuters.
Bonds and inflation backdrop
The 30-year Treasury yield was at its highest level in more than 20 years, and the 10-year yield stood well above 5%. Core PCE inflation for July was reported at 3.3% year on year versus the Fed’s 2% target.
What strategists are saying
Jim Baird of Plante Moran, James Ragan of D.A. Davidson and Paul Nolte were among market voices cited by Reuters as investors weigh whether strong inflation and labour data would keep the Fed on a tightening path.
Also available in: Саха тылаРусскийEspañol中文Portuguêsالعربية