Russian prices jump on higher utility tariffs, raising odds the central bank keeps rates on hold

Data showing a jump in Russian consumer prices — driven by higher tariffs for housing and utility services — strengthened market expectations that the Bank of Russia will extend its pause in easing monetary policy, and could even be forced to raise its key rate if price pressure persists, Reuters reported on 8 October.

Ruble, reserves and the budget

• The ruble firmed on high oil prices and exporters’ currency sales, Reuters said, after touching its weakest levels in almost a month earlier in the week.
• From 7 October to 6 November the Finance Ministry is spending 279.4 billion rubles on FX and gold purchases under the budget rule, five times the previous amount.
• The central bank said Russia’s international reserves fell by $9.5 billion in a week, to $733.2 billion (TASS).
• The government’s budget documents project a 2026 federal deficit of 3.2% of GDP, or 7.335 trillion rubles (TASS).

Higher tariffs land directly on household bills, at a time when, as Sardaana.org reported on 6 October, at least 19 regions have been switching off street lighting to save money.