IMF chief: AI investment boom is keeping world growth near 3% despite the energy shock

Strong investment in artificial-intelligence infrastructure is keeping global growth at about 3%, International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday, 12 October, at the start of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Reuters reported.

Growth offset

Georgieva said the AI boom is already a “demand shock, an investment shock” that could lift growth in advanced Asian economies by half a percentage point to a full point, and in emerging Asian economies by 0.2 to 0.8 points. Many hardware suppliers are in Asia, including host country Thailand. This, she said, is keeping the world economy growing at around 3% “despite the fact we are being dragged down by the energy supply shock”.

The IMF forecast 3% global growth for 2026 in July and will publish an updated World Economic Outlook on Tuesday.

A “slow-moving tsunami”

Georgieva warned that AI will have deep effects on jobs, education and how governments raise taxes, as income shifts from labour to capital. IMF research suggests about 40% of jobs will be augmented, downgraded or eliminated over time — up to 60% in advanced economies.

World Bank President Ajay Banga said the bank is focusing on “small AI” tools that do not depend on large language models, to raise productivity for farmers, health systems and teachers in emerging markets. Singapore’s President Tharman Shanmugaratnam warned that demand for graduates’ first jobs is weakening and that AI could widen the gap between rich and developing economies.

About 18,000 people are expected at the meetings; according to Reuters sources, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is among ministers skipping them.