China's economy grows 4.5% in the third quarter, slightly beating forecasts

China’s economy grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, slightly above the 4.4% expected in a Reuters poll and up from 4.3% in April-June, which had been the weakest pace in more than three years, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Monday, 19 October.

Key figures

• Quarter on quarter, GDP rose 1.2% (forecast 1.1%, second quarter 0.9%).
• Growth for the first three quarters combined was 4.6%, keeping China on track for the government’s 2026 target of 4.5-5%, The Guardian noted.
• September industrial output rose 5.5% year on year, in line with the Reuters forecast and up from 5.2% in August.
• September retail sales rose 1.1%, better than the 0.6% expected and up from 0.4% in August.
• Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January-September, and property investment fell 20.6%.

Factories ahead of shoppers

According to the NBS, high-tech manufacturing value added grew 14.3% in the first three quarters, and output of industrial robots, lithium-ion batteries and 3D printing devices rose 29.1%, 39.5% and 62.5% respectively. The Guardian reported that strong exports, helped by the global AI boom, did much of the lifting while consumer spending stayed subdued.

Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, told Reuters that “economic momentum remained subdued in September” and that real retail sales “barely grew” after inflation, adding that the data might mean Beijing does not need a big policy change in the fourth quarter. China’s yuan strengthened to its highest level against the dollar since June 2022, Reuters reported.