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US retailers face record holiday express delivery prices, freight index says

The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index forecasts fourth-quarter express parcel rates 13.8% above a year earlier and a record 20.3% above the January 2018 baseline, driven by surcharges and costlier diesel.

Shipping online orders quickly this holiday season will cost US retailers more than ever, according to the latest TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index.

Key figures

  • Express parcel rates in the fourth quarter are forecast at a record 20.3% above the January 2018 baseline.
  • That is 13.8% higher than a year earlier and 2.7% above the third quarter.
  • Diesel reached about $6.53 per gallon in September, AFS said, amid the Middle East conflict.

AFS notes that changes to carriers’ fuel-surcharge tables — not diesel prices alone — account for 72% of the increase in fuel surcharges since early 2021. Peak-season demand surcharges, higher billed weights and a shift toward premium services also push costs up. Reuters reported that the burden lands on retailers as they head into the key shopping season.

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