Exxon and Chevron beat profit forecasts as war-driven refining margins soar

ExxonMobil and Chevron both beat analysts’ third-quarter profit expectations on Friday, as fuel shortages caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran and the war in Ukraine sent refining margins sharply higher, Reuters reports.

ExxonMobil

• Adjusted earnings of $17.5 billion, or $4.23 per share, versus an LSEG consensus of $4.08.
• Adjusted downstream (refining) earnings of $9 billion, up 120% from the second quarter. According to Reuters, it is the first time in at least six years that Exxon has earned more from refining than from exploration and production.
• A 2027 share buyback programme of $20 billion, the same as in 2026.

Chevron

• Reported earnings of $9.9 billion; adjusted earnings of $10.4 billion, or $5.28 per share, versus $4.89 expected.
• US refineries processed a record 1.09 million barrels a day, at nearly 98% utilisation, the company said.

Why margins are high

Attacks on refineries in Russia and Saudi Arabia and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have knocked out fuel-making capacity, according to Reuters. Executives said margins should normalise once the conflicts end and plants are repaired; Chevron Vice Chairman Mark Nelson told analysts margins would “stay a bit elevated, maybe into next year”. Both stocks rose nearly 2% on a day when the main US indexes fell.