OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets unchanged; harder 2027 decision due on 29 November

Seven core members of OPEC+ — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — agreed at an online meeting to keep their December production targets unchanged, OPEC said in a statement reported by Reuters and CNBC. The decision confirms expectations that no further policy changes will come before next year.

Why the group is waiting

• Gulf producers have been raising exports that were disrupted for months by the Iran war, but most are still pumping well below their targets.
• The seven members completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrels per day cut in September and had already held targets steady for October and November.
• A further layer of cuts of about 2 million bpd covers most members through the end of 2026.
• A review of members’ production capacity, needed to set 2027 baselines, is now expected to be completed by mid-November.

All 21 members of the group are due to meet on 29 November, when analysts expect a decision on 2027 quotas. “Today’s decision was the easy one,” Rystad analyst Jorge Leon said, adding that the group faces huge uncertainty over the US-Iran war and the recovery of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Prices

On Friday Brent crude for December settled up 2.4% at about $117.64 a barrel, its highest since the end of April, and US WTI rose 2.08% to $104.12, as traders braced for a possible escalation of the Iran war after Tuesday’s US midterm elections. The International Energy Agency and other forecasters have warned of excess supply in 2027 if Gulf flows return to normal.