Russian ruble weakens for the week as oil slumps and Finance Ministry steps up FX buying

Russia’s ruble ended the first week of November weaker, Reuters reported from Moscow on Friday, 6 November, pointing to the sharpest weekly oil-price fall in years, seasonal declines in exporters’ currency sales after monthly tax payments, and larger state currency purchases.

The numbers

• By 17:15 Moscow time the dollar traded at about 81.93 rubles, the yuan at 12.25 and the euro at 91.24.
• Over the week the ruble was down 1.3% against the yuan, 1.6% against the dollar and 1.4% against the euro, after mostly gaining in the previous three weeks.
• Indicative prices for Russia’s Urals export blend fell this week to a range of $65.25–75.50 a barrel, after rising above $120 in early October.

Budget rule purchases

Because of expensive October oil, the Finance Ministry will buy currency and gold worth 312.6 billion rubles between 9 November and 4 December, up from 279.4 billion previously (the Reuters consensus was 350 billion). Net daily purchases will rise by almost a quarter, to about 15 billion rubles.

Outlook

Freedom Finance Global’s Vladimir Chernov said pressure could intensify in coming weeks as export revenue falls with oil prices. Renaissance Capital analysts expect the normalisation of oil prices and a lower budget-rule base price from 2027 to weaken the ruble later. A Middle East peace, Reuters noted, would formally work against the ruble by easing the shortage of Gulf oil that Russian supplies have partly filled.