Better blood-pressure control could prevent about 518,000 cardiovascular deaths a year in 20 countries, modelling study suggests

A modelling analysis presented at the American Heart Association’s Hypertension Scientific Sessions 2026 in Arlington, Virginia, estimates how many lives could be saved if common preventive services reached far more people, Medical News Today reported on 16 October 2026.

What the researchers did

Study author Scott Pilla, MD, MHS, and colleagues analysed existing health data for 20 upper- and lower-middle-income countries with the highest numbers of deaths from noncommunicable diseases. They looked at six services — treating high blood pressure, statins for high cholesterol, blood-sugar control in type 1 and type 2 diabetes, and colon, breast and cervical cancer screening — and calculated outcomes if each reached about 80% of eligible patients. The blood-pressure target was below 140/90 mmHg.

Main estimates

• Only about one in five adults with hypertension had their blood pressure controlled. Raising that from 20% to 80% was estimated to prevent 518,476 cardiovascular deaths a year — the largest effect of any service.
• Raising statin use from 16% to 80%: about 340,682 deaths prevented; better glucose control in diabetes: about 309,520.
• Among cancer screenings, colon screening had the largest effect: rising from 14% to 80% could prevent about 206,767 cancer deaths a year.

Lower-middle-income countries showed especially large gaps, Pilla said.

Limitations

The findings are preliminary and not yet peer-reviewed. They are model-based estimates, not observed outcomes, and depend on the assumptions used. Low-income countries were not included, and the study does not show how access to care could be expanded. This is not personal medical advice — talk to your doctor about blood pressure checks and treatment.